The long-awaitedWickedadaptation is finally here -half of it, anyway- and it is poised to light up the box office and break into the awards race in a major way. Early signs point to massive success for the John M. Chu directed pic, which stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande as Elphaba and Glinda.Wicked’s box officecould very well hit the billion dollar mark by the end of its run and the film is also earning raves from critics and audiences.
Box office magic andpositive critical receptionis just whatWickedneeds to make an impact and Universal Pictures is launching a robust campaign that will see the film compete in a slew of below-the-line categories, the place where it could find the most success. However, with Grande being campaigned in the Supporting Actress category despite the fact that she’s arguably a co-lead,Wickedcould see its chances in that above-the-line category increase significantly.
Supporting Stars In Musicals Have Fared Better Than Their Leads
Four Have Won So Far This Century
No musical has wonBest PicturesinceChicagoin 2002 and, despite a wide open race, it seems unlikely thatWickedcould be the next. It’s only the first part of a two-part adaptation, so voters, whether consciously or not, will assume that they have the chance to honor the totality of the work in 2026 whenWicked Part 2will compete. Of the musicals that have made an impression on awards voters this century,four have scored Best Supporting Actress trophieswhile largely missing out on the other categories:
2002
2006
2012
Ariana DeBose
2021
Zeta-Jones was the only star ofChicagoto receive an acting prize, though Renée Zellweger, Queen Latifah, and John C. Reilly were all nominated.Dreamgirlsdidn’t even score a Best Picture nomination, with Hudson and Eddie Murphy being the only two nominated in the above-the-line categories. Hugh Jackman was nominated alongside Hathaway forLes Misérables, which did earn a Best Picture nomination. Finally, DeBose’s trophy is the only one for Steven Spielberg’s 2021 remake ofWest Side Story, the same trophy Rita Moreno won for playing Anita in the original, Best Picture winning film.
The Chances Of Ariana Grande Winning An Oscar
Grande Does Have Some Direct Competition
Wickedisn’t the only musical competing this year, which makes things a bit more complicated.Netflix’s controversialEmilia Pérezhit the streamer after a lengthy festival run that positioned the film as a major contender. Zoe Saldaña will be campaigning for Supporting Actress for the film that also stars Karla Sofía Gascón and Selena Gomez. IfEmilia Pérezcan survive the discourse wars, it could very well be a major player when the Oscars eventually reveal the winners in March, though if Academy voters are swayed one way or another, Saldaña could edge out Grande purely because of the film’s festival bonafides.
Grande isn’t a significant competitor forWickedquite yet and Saldaña is still the frontrunner in the category, but it’s entirely possible that Grande eclipses Saldaña somewhere along the way to the 2025 ceremony. With theBest Actressfield particularly competitive this year, the pop star could be the film’s best shot at getting recognized for acting. There’s still a long way to go, though, and still many chances for the race to change once again.
