Dwayne Johnson’s new Christmas action movie is out in theaters, and given his history of headlining major hits,Red One’s box office opening weekend performance is notable for his current standing in Hollywood and the future. The Rock has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the wave of franchises and IP that has dominated much of Hollywood for more than a decade. After being part of huge hits likeFast & FuriousandJumanji, he returns to the realm of original, potential franchise starters, withRed One’s endingleaving room for more.
With Amazon MGM releasing the film in cinemas, audiences canwatchRed Onein theatersbefore it goes to streaming. That means the film - initially intended for Prime Video - is subject to box office analysis. In years past, that would be a welcome thing for Dwayne Johnson, as he was a clear box office draw who could help resurrect franchises and bolster their financial performances. Following its opening weekend at the box office,Red One’s performance suggests a big disappointment. However, comparisons ofThe Rock’s moviesand other factors suggest there’s more to the story.
Red One Made $32 Million In Its Opening Weekend - But The Budget Is $200M+
Dwayne Johnson’s Christmas Movie Matched Expectations
With its opening day on July 26, 2025,Red One’s opening weekend from November 15-17 delivered a box office haul that is more or less successful depending on the metrics its judged. PerBox Office Mojo, the movie made just over $32.1 million at the domestic box office during its first three days in theaters. This was more thanenough forRed Oneto open at #1 at the box office, topplingVenom: The Last Dance. The performance comes from making $10.9 million on Friday (including Thursday night previews), with the remaining $21.1 million coming on Saturday and Sunday.
Red One has already made $50 million internationally, bringing its worldwide box office total to $82 million so far.
On the surface, a precise $32,106,112 opening weekend forRed One’s box office is mediocre. It’s a number that isn’t outright spectacular, but it also came right in line with the film’s box office projections, which put the range at $30-$40 million at various points. The movie settled in at the lower end of those projections, which isn’t great, but it’s also a small victory to say that there wasn’t even less interest than initially expected. 2024 has seen films likeJoker: Folie a DeuxandThe Fall Guyopen below expectations, so The Rock’s movie avoided doing that.
The bigger problem forRed Onemaking $32 million at the box office in its opening weekend is that the film reportedly cost much more to make.Red One’s budgetis $250 million per various reports. That is concerning for a film when talking about its path to finding success strictly through the box office. Typically, a movie must make at least double its budget at the box office to break even. WhileRed Onecould find success elsewhere, the $32 million opening weekend hurts the film’s shot of making the necessary $500 million at the box office.
Still, it’s worth noting thatRed Onestill had a top 20 opening weekend domestically for all 2024 movies releasedto this point. The original Christmas action movie utilized The Rock and Chris Evans' star power to have a bigger opening weekend thanThe Fall Guy,Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,Transformers One,Civil War,Smile 2,Argylle, and more titles. Considering some of these films are among the more notable box office disappointments of 2024,Red Oneoutperforming them puts it on a path to be more successful overall.
How Red One’s Opening Weekend Box Office Compares To Other Dwayne Johnson Movies
Red One’s Opening Is Not That Big Of An Anomaly For The Rock
A $32 million opening weekend might not be what Dwayne Johnson fully expected fromRed Oneupon the film’s conception, but this three day performance alone is not a major outlier for him. He has undoubtedly had bigger opening weekends in the past thanks toFast & Furioussequels,Jumanji: The Next Level, orMoana, andMoana 2will likely give him another new massive entry among the higher side of his outings. ButRed One’s opening weekend box office is comparable to most of his other original or new franchise starters.
$98.7 million
$97.3 million
$86.1 million
$67 million
$60 million
$59.2 million
$56.6 million
$54.5 million
$40.5 million
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle(2017)
$36.1 million
The Rock has had several other movies open in a comparable range asRed One.Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungleonly made $4 million more before it made over $400 million domestically and nearly $1 billion worldwide.The Scorpion King,Rampage,Central Intelligence, andJungle Cruiseopened in the $30-$36 million range, and all butThe Scorpion Kingmade over $200 million worldwide. That makesRed One’s opening appear less dour for Dwayne Johnson, as it’s still a league aboveSkyscraper,Baywatch,Hercules, andDC League of Super-Pets- his worst openings of the last decade.
How Red One’s Opening Weekend Box Office Compares To Other Christmas Movies
Christmas Movies Are Not Usually Major Performers In The Opening Weekend
Despite the action focus of the film,Red Onestill classifies as a Christmas movie thanks to its very upfront setting, story, and characters. This is notable for the film when discussing the box office, especially sinceAmazon MGM’s decision to release it an entire month before Christmas raised some eyebrows.Red Oneis not close to being the new highest-grossing Christmas movie after its opening weekend, and its opening weekend alone still comes in well behind the live-action and animated movies starring the Grinch, which are some of the bigger Christmas movie box office hits.
The film outperformed Christmas classics that went on to make hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office and start franchises
Taking a look at other notable Christmas movies and their box office performances, though,Red One’s opening weekend perhaps looks better than before. Removing bothGrinchmovies, the only Christmas movies with a higher opening weekend than The Rock’s new film areAlvin and the ChipmunksandBatman Returns. That’s a notable achievement for Dwayne Johnson’s holiday action film, as it makesRed One’s opening weekendthe fifth biggest for a Christmas movie ever. The film outperformed Christmas classics that went on to make hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office and start franchises in a few instances.
$67.5 million
$55 million
$45.6 million
Alvin and the Chipmunks(2007)
$44.3 million
$32.106 million
$32.100 million
$31.1 million
$31 million
$30 million
$29.6 million
$29 million
$23.3 million
$21.7 million
Christmas with the Kranks(2004)
$21.5 million
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms(2018)
$20.3 million
In addition to claimingElfas an equal, Dwayne Johnson’s film finishes its opening weekend in the same ballpark asHome Alone 2: Lost in New York,Four Christmases,A Christmas Carol,Daddy’s Home 2, andThe Santa Clause 2. It outperformed other Christmas-set, action-oriented movies likeDie Hard 2($21.7 million) andViolent Night($13.4 million).Red One’s opening weekend box office is also greater than franchise startersThe Santa Clause($19.3 million) andHome Alone($17 million). So, in terms of battling its holiday season rivals,Red One’s box office is on the higher side of history.
Red One’s Opening Weekend Is A Sign That It Could Find More Box Office Success
Audiences Are Really Enjoying Red One
Despite the similaritiesRed One’s opening weekend shares with other Dwayne Johnson starring vehicles and Christmas movies, the film’s overall box office performance is still in need of help to become a hit thanks to the $250 million budget. The softer opening weekend andRed One’s bad reviewsmight lead to some belief that the film is already set up for failure too. However, Dwayne Johnson’s movie got some news during the opening weekend that there is reason for hope that a strong box office run could be coming.
This is because of the film’s audience reception and CinemaScore - a survey where audiences rate their viewing experience with a movie with letter grades. The movie’s poor Rotten Tomatoes scores with critics did not deter audiences from checking out the holiday action adventure, and most of them really enjoyed their time.Red One’s CinemaScore is an A-, while its Popcornmeter (formerly known as the Audience Score) on Rotten Tomatoes is 90%. This could give the film positive word of mouth with casual audiences, allowing the movie’s box office to gain momentum as the holiday season heats up.
What Red One’s Opening Weekend Means For Dwayne Johnson’s Future
He’s Still A Notable Box Office Draw
Seeing a $32 million opening weekend versus a $250 million budget is not ideal for Dwayne Johnson, especially after controversial reports about his alleged behavior on set leading to the costs ballooning. However, diving into his history as a leading man shows thatRed One’s box office performance is quite standard for him. It would have been nice for all involved if the movie proved to be an exception that drew in mass crowds, but history suggests that only really happens with The Rock when established franchises are involved.
SinceRed Oneis an original idea with franchise aspirations, the film’s opening weekend is solid for Johnson. It shows thataudiences have not grown tired with himand are still willing to go to a theater to see a film where he is the main attraction. The biggest lesson that should be learned is the increasing budgets his projects carry. IfRed Onewas made at a fraction of the cost it reportedly took, the film’s $32 million opening weekend and nearly $100 million global gross already would be looked at in a much more positive light.
That’s intriguing considering what Dwayne Johnson has in terms of upcoming movies. BeyondMoana 2’s impending release right before Thanksgiving 2024, he’s attached to doThe Smashing Machinefor A24 and Benny Safdie, the live-actionMoanaremake, two moreFast & Furiousmovies, and several other long-rumored projects. There’s clearly no hesitancy in the Hollywood world to get into business with Johnson. That should continue with major theatrical and streaming releases, butwhether aRed Onesequel happens remains to be seen. Its box office will be an essential factor, but not the only one.
Red One’s Box Office Won’t Fully Determine If Its A Success
Amazon MGM’s internal data will be what helps them determine inRed Oneis a success
Since there’s much more ambiguity within the streaming space when it comes to viewership data and any metrics to help determine a film’s popularity and success, Amazon MGM’s internal data will be what helps them determine inRed Oneis a success at the end of the day. This could be less important ifRed One’s box office proves to have strong legs and vaults the film to the $300 million - or higher - range worldwide. That might just be enough for Amazon to look at the film in a positive light after factoring in its likely streaming success.
