Just when it seemed as thoughAnorahad lost ground in the Best Picture race, it’s now re-emerged as the Oscars 2025 frontrunner at the perfect time. Sean Baker’s movie was pinpointed as an expected awards contender from the moment it debuted at the Cannes Film Festival. The movie immediately earned rave reviews and was even awarded the festival’s top prize, the Palme d’Or. Despite the strong early success,Anora’s shutout at the Golden Globes asThe BrutalistandEmilia Pérezgained steam created a sense that the movie had faded as theOscars 2025 predicted Best Picture winner.
That leftAnorato look like the movie that peaked way too early in awards season, whileThe Brutalist,Emilia Pérez, and evenA Complete Unknownfound more traction following theOscars 2025 nominations.Anoraperformed admirably, getting its expected six nominations in widely predicted categories. This helped keep hope alive that the film could win Best Picture if awards season broke its way from that point on. And withThe BrutalistandEmilia Pérezheadlining the2025 Oscars' biggest controversies,Anorajust needed a strong showing somewhere to flip the narrative. That happened over the weekend.
Anora Won The Top Prize At PGA & Critics Choice
PGA Is A Massive Oscars Precursor
The best case scenario forAnoraover the weekend played out thanks to the PGA Awards (Producers Guild of America Awards) and the Critics' Choice Awards. Critics Choice came first and gaveAnorathe Best Picture win on Friday night. While theCritics Choice voters have no overlap with the Oscars, it’s still a moment to gain votes with a strong performance. The following night, the PGA Awards ceremony selected it as the winner of the top prize, the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures. That’s more significant, given the PGA and Oscars overlap.
Anorais now the 36th winner of the PGA’s version of Best Picture. The voting body consists of over 8,000 producers, and many are Academy members eligible to vote on the Oscars. That helps explain the incredible track record that this award has with Best Picture. The Oscars Best Picture winner has matched with the PGA’s Outstanding Producer award 24 out of 35 times overall. The track record is even better more recently, as12 of the last 15 Best Picture winners also won at PGA. The exceptions are1917(2019),La La Land(2016), andThe Big Short(2015).
This provides a major boost toAnoraas a Best Picture contender, especially as some of its competitors falter. The movie was already thought to make up some ground onThe BrutalistorEmilia Pérezthanks to the Oscars' preferential ballot used for Best Picture, which could hurt two more divisive films.Anorais more of a crowdpleaser that could appeal to most voters and put it high on the weighted ballot, even if it isn’t at the very top.
Anorawinning at PGA is notable for the film itself, but it also helps that it beatThe BrutalistandEmilia Pérezto do so. Those films won the top prizes at the Golden Globes, which has an international voting body. With the Academy significantly diversifying its members in recent years and expanding with more international voters, there was an argument to be made thatThe BrutalistandEmilia Pérezwere bigger hits abroad thanAnora. The PGAs could have continued that momentum and given either a stronghold over Best Picture. Instead,Anorasolidified a spot as a legitimate contender.
Sean Baker DGA Win Is Another Huge Boost For Anora’s Best Picture Oscar Chances
Sean Baker Becomes The Best Director Oscars Frontrunner
Right beforeAnorawon at PGA, Sean Baker celebrated a victory at the DGA Awards (Directors' Guild of America Awards). His peers selected him as the DGA Best Director winner. That’s a significant development for the Oscars 2025 Best Director race, asthe DGA and Oscars winners have matched every year except for eight times. Baker suddenly becomes the favorite to win Best Director at the Oscars thanks to this outcome.
The Best Director Oscar winner has come from the Best Picture winner 69 times in the previous 96 years
Winning Best Director is often a strong indicator as to what movie is going to win Best Picture at the Oscars. The Best Director Oscar winner has come from the Best Picture winner 69 times in the previous 96 years. Narrowing that scope down to more relevant times, the Best Director and Best Picture Oscar winners still align 15 times in the last 24 years. It’s also matched four of the last five years. That means nearly two-thirds of the movies that win Best Director go on to win Best Picture.
If Sean Baker goes on to win Best Director at the Oscars, there is an even greater chance thatAnorawins Best Picture. Although Baker is deserving of his nomination and potential win as a director, he was previously considered more of a second-tier contender in the category. The potential of him now winning Best Director would signal that the love forAnorain the Academy is accurate and would strongly signal that its name could be called for Best Picture.
Anora’s Awards Season Surge Comes Right As Oscar Voting Is About To Begin
Oscars Voting Kicks Off On February 11th
Anora’s new wins at Critics Choice, PGA, and DGA are significant not only historically but also in terms of timing of recognition, which should also work in the film’s favor. The movie has been looking for a chance to pop again in the awards conversation after having so much acclaim early on. Winning at Critics Choice, PGA, and DGA give it that opportunity, with Sean Baker able to deliver multiple acceptance speeches that could get Oscar voters to think aboutAnoramore. That’s important since these victories come days before Oscar voting officially begins.
Academy members are able to start voting for winners in all Oscars 2025 categories on July 26, 2025. Final ballots are due a week later on February 18.Anorahas now surged at the best possible timethen. It is the movie that three of the final precursors recognized in the most significant categories. WGA and BAFTA will still name their winners during the Oscar voting period, so the results of both ceremonies could bring some voters to reconsider their ballots before everything is finalized.
The WGA Awards are on February 15, and the BAFTA Awards are on February 16
Anorahas a chance to furtherstrengthen its Best Picture frontrunner status through WGA and BAFTA. It has 7 BAFTA nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director, so wins in both categories would be huge. However, the BAFTAs also tend to favor British films, which is why there is some thought thatConclavecould win.Anorais only one of two Oscar nominees for Best Original Screenplay to earn a nomination in the same category at WGA. If it wins there and beatsA Real Pain, momentum will continue in its favor.
It’s worth noting thatAnorawinning at WGA could also boost its Best Picture contention status. The Original Screenplay Oscar has gone to a WGA nominee 32 times in the last 40 years. The WGA winner then won the Oscar in 24 of those 32 instances.Seven movies won Original Screenplay at WGA and the Oscars and also won Best Picture. Those odds aren’t incredible, but another win forAnoraat WGA would still keep the film at the forefront of voters' minds at the most important time.
Anora Is The Clear Frontrunner To Win Best Picture At The Oscars Now
But Will It Maintain Its New Status?
Anorais unmistakably the frontrunner to win Best Picture thanks to this recent success. It has the support of producers and directors, which will be important during Oscars voting. Although the actor’s branch is the largest in the Academy,Anorashould also do well with them in the Best Picture voting - even if Demi Moore wins Best Actress over Mikey Madison. The full strength of the support actors have for the movie will become more clear on February 23 when the SAG Awards are held.IfAnorawins the Ensemble Cast award, the Best Picture race will practically be wrapped up.
This does mean that there is still room forAnorato lose ground and watch another movie win Best Picture. However, it’s becoming a bit more difficult to figure out what movie will unseat it.The BrutalistandEmilia Pérezmay be too divisive to win, whileDune: Part TwoandThe Substanceare too genre-based, andI’m Still HereandNickel Boysare too small to contend seriously.Conclavemissed out on some key categories that hurt its odds too. That leaves onlyWickedandA Complete Unknown.
It is not unfathomable thatWickedorA Complete Unknowncould win Best Picture. Both should do well on the preferential ballot and have good chances to win key other categories: Timothée Chalamet in Best Actor and Ariana Grande in Best Supporting Actress. However, it would take a really significant push for either film to overtakeAnoraunless another unexpected awards season controversy emerges. The race isn’t officially over, asThe BrutalistorEmilia Pérezovercoming their controversies is still possible, butAnorais in the best position right now to win Best Picture in a few weeks.
